The NRM's by-election strategy to retain all its Luke-worm MPs
Knowing that his government has totally failed in service delivery, all other sectors and losing international credibility, Museveni and his NRM party has turned to by-elections as a way of disproving to the world that his 32 year old dictatorship is desired by Ugandans.
The ongoing by-elections are also being used to demoralize opposition figures fighting the dictatorship.
Museveni’s work-plan is to retain all his Luke-worm legislators he manipulates to drive the country as his family. He is set out to support them either through court of appeal or in stage managed by-elections.
So far we have had 5 bi-elections, they are all carried out using the same strategy and agenda with Government pumping in alot of state resources, deploys army, manipulates the electoral commission and directly buys votes especially in village settings
To hold a by-election there is connivance between the NRM government, electoral commission and the judicially so that its done at Museveni’s best convenience.
Its by design that court ordered all by elections in the north, then Eastern, then central be held one after the other. The intention was to start from areas where NRM can win then end with areas where cheating and use of extra force is needed after picking experience
Court from June last year pulled out over 22 NRM MPs who all appealed. Court gave a deadline of October to clear off all electoral Petitions and appeals.
6months down, we have had only 5by-elections and a back-log of appeals
NRM after losing many electoral court petitions they ordered all their defeated members to appeal so as to buy time as they designed ways of dealing with courts and bye elections. They came off with 3 strategies
The appeal Court strategy:
Rudimentary court judgments is reserved for 70% of its carders. NRM through Museveni dictates which case should be heard when and with what urgency—and which side should lose/loose!
The by-elections strategy.
Because NRM-Museveni fears to be directly exposed as a dictator and wishes to reserve some respect for the judicially some NRM carders had to be sacrificed at the altar of a by-election, where government uses all efforts to pick them back into the system.To archive this:
- They planned bi-elections to be held one at a time In region order of N.E.C W.
- All NRM big-wigs converge in a constituency where the bi-elections are to be held crowned by Museveni’s appearance on the last day.
- The contesting candidate is given all the money and other state resources s\he needs.
- Police and army is heavily deployed in the area to intimidate voters.
- Electoral commission shamelessly rigs elections for NRM
- The opposition is divided with contestants paid to participate in the race
The Case Sale off strategy
Members who lost court cases and have no chances in court of appeal have been offered ground to buy off cases from their chaalengers. Some have been promised positions but majority have been paid money to sell off their cases either at appeal or petition level.
This strategy has worked well to keep many luke-worm NRM MPs in the house
One Vocal opposition politician in the greater Mukono, sold off his case in this manner but assured his supporters he appealed in court of appeal! Innocent supporters are eagerly waiting for court outcomes as he moves on with sold personal integrity
Lessons from the 5 by-election
In Aruu bi-elections won by an independent candidate election date was postponed to fit Musevenis program so he campaigns for NRM candidate in the area.
After the loss all Northern Uganda NRM MPs whose election was contested won cases in appeal court.
The second region so far is the Eastern region where NRM has displayed all her intent to cling to power by unleashing all state powers on opposition
Reports from the Kamuli By-Election won by NRM candidate Rehema Watongola indicated they were filled with excessive Police and Voter bribery
FDC contestant Salam Musumba described it as “This has not been an election but a war between civilian and the coercive government.”
In Kagoma NRM’s Walyomu won but the challenger went back to court saying there were too many obvious irregularities
In Toroma the irregularities were too much that before announcing the results the EC Chairperson Justice Joseph Simon Byabakama admitted that “there was violence in some areas during the election exercise” as NRM’s Joseph Koluo was declared winner.
The numbers.
In all by-elections Opposition candidates gunned more votes than the NRM’s. That’s why NRM plays the division game by supporting candidate from different parties to contest as independents to divide votes as NRM wins a simple majority supported by cheating, army scare, voter buying and unfair EC.
Example in Kagoma:
Mr Moses Walyomu (NRM)- 24257. Mr Alex Brandon Kintu (Independent)- 18490. Mr Timothy Batuwa Lusala (FDC)- 8149. Mr Muhammed Bidondole (Independent)- 1248
In Toroma:
NRMs Kuluo obtained 8,262. Robert Imalingat (independent) 4,072. Solomon Ossiya Alemu (independent) 3,440 Martin Odaka FDC’ 3,081. John Robert Ekongot (Independent) 1,957, Imakorit Constantine 295 Omiat Andrew Joseph (UPC) 99 Independent Aeku Patrick Edyangu 72
Meaning NRM can never beat a united opposition.
The next region by-elections are coming to is Buganda and Kyadondo is the destination. Already NRM which is too weak in Kampala is playing the divide and win game game helped by 3 FDC leaning candidates in the race facing off with the incumbent Katinti Appolo.
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